DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/19 10:59
All Grains Higher at Midday
Broadly firmer trade at midday, with spring wheat the laggard.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 85. The dollar index is
flat. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with crude 1.30
lower. Livestock trade is weaker with hogs sharply lower. Precious metals are
mostly higher with gold up 1.30.
Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents higher with good buying amid oversold conditions
so far today, with little fresh news except 191,000 metric tons of corn hitting
the daily wire. Ethanol margins remain stable with ethanol futures following
the corn rally this a.m., while blender margins compress. Basis has held up
well with the slow pace of harvest so far with propane shortages still noted,
but warmer weather should help through this week with midweek rains slowing
progress in some areas. South America should see areas of improvement as
planting progresses, especially in Brazil. Harvest progress was rated at 76%
vs. 92% on average. On the December contract support is the $3.67 1/2 lows from
Monday along with the lower Bollinger Band at $3.66, with resistance the 20-day
Soybeans are 5 to 6 cents higher with profit taking vs. recent shorts at
midday with little fresh news otherwise as harvest winds up. Meal is 1.00 to
$2.00 higher, and oil is 40 to 50 points higher. The ral remains at the lows
with planting getting to 70% complete in Brazil and only limited near-term
concerns. Bean basis has moved to a more sideways trend short term with pockets
of firmness showing up at crushers. Weekly harvest progress was 91% vs. 95% on
average. On the January chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $9.07,
which we are back above with resistance well above the market at $9.28 where
the 20-day moving average, along with oversold conditions.
Wheat trade is flat to 8 cents higher with trade trying to build on the
positive start to the week with further condition declines and a mixed forecast
coming forward. The Chicago/Kansas City December spread is 87 cents with choppy
action to start the week. The corn/HRW spread has widened back to 51 cents,
pushing wheat further from the feed bunk. The weaker dollar could help more if
sustained vs. world values this week. Export business wil be watched with more
Mediterranean tenders going out this week. Weekly crop progress showed planting
at 95%, same as average, with 83% emerged vs. 86% on average, with 52% good to
excellent, down 2 percentage points, and 14% poor to very poor with some
moisture expected for the west in the extended forecast. The December Kansas
City chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $4.13, with resistance the
20-day at 4.23 which we are above at midday.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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